ornoth | Was that BJ really that good?

I thought it important that I followup on last month’s article, wherein—after a successful trip down to Foxwoods—I described my betting strategy for blackjack.

I did a little followup research, and discovered that the basic idea behind my betting strategy is pretty close to something that’s been around for a long time, and is commonly known as the Martingale betting system.

The kicker is that it is almost universally derided by the pros who have looked at it. That kind of intrigued me, so I read up on it quite a bit.

I’ve already described the basic strategy: every time you lose, you double your bet until you win, guaranteeing that you can’t lose.

There are two problems with that. First, you need a big bankroll to be able to absorb the doubling you have to do if you lose six, eight, ten hands in a row. Second, on most games, there’s a fixed house limit that is designed to specifically prohibit you from following the doubling progression indefinitely.

So what it boils down to is this: you’re betting the casino that you’re not going to lose six, eight, ten hands in a row during that session. It’s a very profitable bet, and one you’re likely to win most of the time, as shown in the chart at right.

However, the problem is that when you lose that bet, you lose your entire bankroll. Hence the worrying lump at the left hand side of that same chart.

So there are a couple keys to making Martingale work. First, you need to play a game with near 50-50 odds, like the red/black roulette bet or the pass line in craps. Second, you need to play it for a comparatively short time, because over the long run, you’re guaranteed to eventually lose those eight hands in a row and completely bust, and that will likely lose you more money than you won on all the other hands combined.

That’s why professional gamblers hate Martingale: over the course of the large number of hands they play, they’re guaranteed to bust. However, for us recreational gamblers, it can be profitable in the short term. But if you’re going to Martingale, you always have to be prepared to lose your entire bankroll at the drop of a hat, because the more you play, the more likely it is to happen.

Of course, being cocksure, I’ll continue to play Martingale for blackjack, even though it’s heavily contraindicated. I’ll bring what I can afford to lose, be happy when I win, and grumble when I lose. We’ll see how it turns out. It’s not like I go to a casino often enough to tip the odds in their favor. But win or lose, it’ll be an interesting thing to observe.

But if you thought my betting strategy made sense, you’re hereby officially warned: it’s explicitly called out as a misleading and dangerous strategy by nearly all professional gamblers.